Less than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, we finally have solid evidence that the coalition that carried him to victory a year ago is unraveling today. The slate of Republican losses — and the extent of Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, in particular — is not just who. Democratic response to Trump It’s finally here, but a key part of Trump’s majority — Latino voters — may be Not necessarily a loyal Republican voter after all
Nowhere was that clearer last night than New Jersey exit poll suggested that Democratic Gov.-elect Mickey Sherrill won nearly 70 percent of Latino voters, compared to 31 percent for Republican Jack Ciattarelli. That’s a huge reversal: Trump came within 6 points of winning the state in 2024, largely thanks to black and Latino voters who flocked to him across the state. Now, in border, MunicipalityAnd in counties with large Latino populations that swung toward Trump last year, particularly in North Jersey, Latino voters appear to have turned out. highly-anticipated loss, and most reverted to the Democratic side.
But that still leaves more questions: Are these disillusioned Trumpers turning to Democrats? Or are they more selective? To understand what we can — and can’t — take away from Tuesday’s results, I turned to one of the leading pollsters and experts on Latino politics in the United States: Carlos Odio, co-founder of the Democratic-leaning research firm Equis, for some answers. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Heading into the election, what were your top questions about Latino voters?
My question was whether this race should look like the last governor’s race in 2021, [with lower but steady Latino support for Democrats] Or 2024, when Trump made these huge gains. It finally looks like 2021. And I think what that suggests is that, going into 2026, Latino support for Democrats is more likely to be on par with what it was in 2021 than it was in 2024.
Can you unpack that for me? What is the deeper significance of Latino voting patterns as they look in 2021 versus 2024?
So if [Tuesday’s results] Looked more like 2024, so what do you say? Well, these Trump gains weren’t singular. There is a sustainable change that Republicans can hold and even build on. If that happened, it would suggest that Latinos are not going to be part of a “blue wave,” if such a thing ever happened.
If the results are like 2021, the takeaway would be better, Well, we’re back to more typical off-year elections, something like that middle [level of Latino support for Democrats] That we saw coming out of 2020.
So, from our vantage point today, it’s almost like you’re turning back the clock to see what the Latino vote was like before the Biden presidency.
Which, it should be noted, most Democrats would still consider not great. Not as devastating as 2024, but still not great.
That’s right. We are still in the age of Trump.
I remember I was working in Florida during the 2018 cycle when Florida Hispanics apparently sat through a national “blue wave.” I saw how the Latinos in Florida behaved differentlywhat shall we say Resistance was mobilizing people, but Latino voters were not caught up in that wave or at that moment.
So the question for me going into this election was: How many Latinos are basically going to be, I don’t just feel united against Donald Trump. I’m so frustrated with both sides that I’m either going to sit it out or I’m going to vote on another consideration; But I’m not catching anti-Trump fever.
How reasonably can we extrapolate from this election and apply our expectations to the midterm elections or even the next presidential election?
Can you decide what happened in Texas from last night in New Jersey? I don’t think it’s quite right, but these results are certainly a stronger data point than anything so far this year. When you look at the trend lines for 2016, it’s true that off-years and presidential years tell a different story, so what happened in 2025 won’t tell you much about what’s going to happen in 2028. But I think it’s a very good indicator of what to expect for 2026, or a better 20-20 indicator than 20. 2026.
How skewed was the result — Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2025 — versus pro-Trump Latinos sitting out this off-year election?
We have managed to tear down the wall underlying your question that separates these two categories of voters. The truth is, support and polling point in the same direction. When people have someone to support them, they are more likely to vote. When people don’t like their choices, they are less likely to vote. And so what we have been seeing Our polling 11 percent of Latino Trump voters say they will vote Democrat in 2026.
That actually ended up being a lot. That’s a meaningful chunk. And at the same time, you can see that Trump has many other strengths An irregular voting Latino — the kind of people who didn’t vote in 2022, who didn’t turn up — who couldn’t vote in 2026. I think there’s another aspect, which is that low-propensity voters are the most inclined, the most sensitive to the environment. And what we’re seeing now is that Latinos who vote irregularly are the most disillusioned with Trump.
